Disease Forecasting and Recommendation

In 2023, Guru Technology, in collaboration with ICIMOD, developed and deployed the Late-Blight Forecasting System, a groundbreaking initiative aimed at addressing the devastating effects of late blight on tomato and potato crops in Nepal. Late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity in the region. To combat this issue, we created a mobile application powered by an advanced Graph Neural Network (GNN) model capable of forecasting late blight risk. Our innovative system leverages 43 years of NASA satellite weather data to provide 5-day forecasts for 320 weather stations in Sudurpashim and Karnali Province, delivering critical, localized weather and disease risk information directly to Nepali farmers.

As part of the project, we integrated a user-friendly mobile application, developed using React Native, with a backend powered by TensorFlow, PyTorch, and MongoDB. The app provides farmers with intuitive visualizations of late blight risks and actionable recommendations to safeguard their crops. Field validation studies confirmed the effectiveness of the system: in high-risk areas identified by the app, 30% of crops were infected with late blight. Wet lab analyses further validated the predictions, with all infected samples testing positive for P. infestans. These findings demonstrate the app’s ability to predict real-world outbreaks, empowering farmers to take preventive measures.

This system represents a significant step forward in leveraging artificial intelligence for agricultural resilience. By delivering accurate, timely forecasts and actionable recommendations, the Late-Blight Forecasting System supports sustainable farming practices and enhances crop management for vulnerable communities. The project is detailed in our ICIMOD publication and the International Journal of ICT and Digital Convergence, highlighting its potential to transform agricultural decision-making in Nepal. Further research and field trials aim to refine the system and expand its applicability across diverse farming regions.
Publications for the Late-Blight Forecasting System:

ICIMOD Adaptation Solutions Portal
https://www.icimod.org/adaptation-solutions-portal/images/action-research/Grape_poster__finalset_forprint-pages-24.pdf

International Journal of ICT and Digital Convergence
http://ijictdc.kasdc.or.kr/journal/article.php?code=92101&vol=9